Wednesday, November 03, 2004

HOW BAD WERE THE EXIT POLLS? Slate lived with them. And now it's dying with them. Here are some hypes on Slate's home page that are still up as I post this: "The Latest Exit Polls: Kerry's Ahead in FL, OH, PA, WI, MI, MN, NM, and NH"; "W in 2008?"; "Did Bush Blow It with Hispanics?"; "How Bush Could Still Pull It Out." Not pretty.

Looks like Zogby's gone home. Nothing new since 5 p.m. No doubt he's drinking heavily.

There are still scenarios under which Kerry could win, but if he does, it looks like it will be with a substantial deficit in the popular vote. Right now Bush is beating Kerry by 51 percent to 48 percent - quite a bit more than by Bush lost to Al Gore four years ago.

Does Kerry really want to lose the popular vote by one million or two million and take office via an Electoral College fluke?

"PURE, UNADULTERATED HATE." Alan Simpson is prattling on to Tom Brokaw about the alleged hate campaign directed by the Democrats against George W. Bush and Simpson's friend Dick Cheney. All on one side, of course! That nice Dick Cheney would never suggest that voting for John Kerry would increase the likelihood of a terrorist attack.

THE KIDS AREN'T ALL RIGHT. I can't access the MSNBC exit polls directly for some reason, but here's what the Daily Kos says: "MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29 bracket voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down. That's what's killing us."


Anonymous said...

"There are still scenarios under which Kerry could win"

Even with Florida and Ohio called for the president, if the Colorado Proportional Representation proposition passes, Kerry could win with a couple votes from there. I have heard nothing on the Proposition. Finally did hear the 4th proportional vote for Maine 2nd District called for Kerry tonight.

Bill R.

Anonymous said...

1AM, Ohio marked Red -- If Kerry cleans the table from here, and Colorado stays unitary, and no appeals / provisional ballots / recounts change anything -- 269-269, it goes to the House and Senate. Bush lead in N.M. could make it clearer.

Provisional Ballots may make Ohio the Florida'04 with litigation for a month. The folks disenfranchised by long lines were done, and have done us, a gross disservice.

Bill R.

Anonymous said...

Bush lost the popular vote 4 years ago and was assigned the Presidency by right wing judicial fiat. I could care less if Kerry were to lose the popular vote and win an ec victory. Anything to get rid of Bush is fine by me. Now what do we have to look forward to, privatized SS, deficits, wars, right wing packing of the Supreme Court? As far as I'm concerned, my country is ruined for a generation at least.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone looked into whether the exit polls were as accurate in precincts with Diebold machines as in other precincts?

Dystopos said...

That's an excellent question, Anonymous #4. Let me know if you find out.