JUST SAY NO. When Bill
Clinton proposed a massive restructuring of the health-care system
more than a decade ago, William Kristol - then a top Republican
strategist, now a pundit - had some simple advice: kill
it, sight unseen. As social
policy, Kristol's memo was irresponsible; as political hardball, it
was brilliant. The Clinton health-care plan was falsely labeled a
government takeover of the medical system, and the president's defeat
paved the way for the 1994 Republican congressional victory and the
rise of Newt Gingrich.
Do the Democrats have the backbone
to do the same thing with George W. Bush's Social Security proposal?
There are some encouraging signs. Senate minority leader Harry Reid
says that not
a single one of his members
will support Bush's plan to divert Social Security funds into private
accounts. But the Bush-Rove machine is an awesome sight once it gets
revved up. Bush today launches a tour aimed at building support for
his plan, and at pressuring Democrats in conservative states into
getting on board.
Unlike the Kristol maneuver of a
dozen years ago, killing private Social Security accounts would be
good social policy. Bush's description last night in his
State
of the Union address of the
woes facing Social Security might be said to fall into the category
of "accurate but not true." Here's the heart of his case:
Thirteen years from now,
in 2018, Social Security will be paying out more than it takes in.
And every year afterward will bring a new shortfall, bigger than
the year before. For example, in the year 2027, the government
will somehow have to come up with an extra $200 billion to keep
the system afloat - and by 2033, the annual shortfall would be
more than $300 billion. By the year 2042, the entire system would
be exhausted and bankrupt. If steps are not taken to avert that
outcome, the only solutions would be dramatically higher taxes,
massive new borrowing, or sudden and severe cuts in Social
Security benefits or other government programs.
The problem with this is that it is
based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how Social Security works
- and a cynical belief that the scare tactics contained therein will
be sufficient to persuade millions of Americans into stampeding his
way, lest they otherwise lose out on their benefits
altogether.
Media Log freely confesses to
having spent the better part of a career avoiding the details of
Social Security. Nevertheless, I have recently made some attempt to
come up to speed, and I'm utterly convinced that people who really
understand Social Security have proved there is no crisis. I highly
recommend this
January 16 New York Times Magazine
article by Roger
Lowenstein. Unfortunately, it's been moved into the archives, and
you'll need to pay a fee. But Lowenstein proves, pretty definitively
as far as I can tell, that Social Security should be able to survive
more or less intact until at least 2080 with just a few minor
tweaks.
A simpler version of the Lowenstein
argument is online here.
Paul
Krugman, Josh
Marshall, and
Bob
Somerby have all been
invaluable on this topic as well.
Social Security is a popular
program, and Democrats thrived politically for decades by claiming -
with some truth and a lot of hyperbole - that Republicans wanted to
destroy it and toss elderly folks out into the street. Now that we
have a Republican president who really does want to destroy
Social Security, can the Dems keep the courage of their
convictions?
A possible line of attack against
the Democrats was heard last night on MSNBC, with host Chris Matthews
and several of his guests observing sagely that though the Democrats
oppose private accounts, they haven't proposed any "alternative."
Look out: this could be effective. In fact - again, to pick up on
Lowenstein's analysis - the politically savvy and socially
responsible "alternative" may well be to emulate Bill Kristol
circa 1993, and just keep standing up and telling Bush, "No
way."
Conservatives aren't going to give
the Dems a break on Social Security no matter what they do. So the
Democrats might as well do the right thing.
STATE OF DISUNION. Media Log
is accustomed to falling asleep during the State of the Union. This
was especially true when Clinton was president, and he would
regularly drone into a second hour of 10-point proposals to solve
whatever.
Last night, though, I had some help
in staying awake: before the speech, I took part in a panel
discussion at Boston College put together by the student Democratic
and Republican organizations. Along with state senator
Brian
Joyce (D-Milton),
Beacon
Hill Institute executive
director David Tuerck, and WBET Radio (AM 1460) talk-show host
Stephen
Pina, we mixed it up for
about an hour and a half on Iraq, Social Security, and other issues -
including immigration, for which I was completely
unprepared.
One of the more interesting moments
came when Joyce asked for a show of hands on how many of the 50 to 75
students in attendance supported last year's attempt by the
Massachusetts legislature to amend the state constitution in order to
prohibit same-sex marriage. Even though the crowd was at least
one-third Republican, very few hands went up. When he asked how many
were in opposition, most of the hands went up. (Sorry if there's any
confusion. Oppose the amendment: for gay marriage; support the
amendment: against gay marriage.) Joyce - who also opposed the
amendment - said it confirmed his belief that opposition to gay
marriage is primarily generational. And he lamented Bush's tactic of
dividing people for political gain.
Joyce's critique was confirmed
during Bush's speech, when the president offered this aside: "Because
marriage is a sacred institution and the foundation of society, it
should not be re-defined by activist judges. For the good of
families, children, and society, I support a constitutional amendment
to protect the institution of marriage."
We already knew that, of course,
but it's always appalling when Bush decides he has to throw some red
meat to his base. Then, too, this came at a time when his new
secretary of education, Margaret Spellings, was denouncing
a kids' show (second item)
for depicting two normal families headed by lesbian
couples.
GANG LAND. Boston
Herald columnist Peter Gelzinis interviews
a mother who has a special
reason for not liking Bush's speech.
ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO. The
Boston Globe won its libel suit. The case against the
Boston Herald may wrap up toward the end of next
week.
Both of these cases are rather odd.
I sat through all of the testimony of Herald reporter Dave
Wedge, and most of that given by Globe reporter Walter
Robinson. At a minimum, the plaintiffs in a libel case must show that
the stories about them were substantially untrue. In the
Herald's case, the plaintiff, Judge Ernest Murphy, also has to
show that Wedge acted with reckless disregard for the truth, a very
high constitutional standard that applies to public
officials.
Yet the jury concluded in the
Globe case that the paper's reporting on Stoneham lawyer
Stephen Columbus was basically true - no libel there. (Globe
story here;
Herald story here.)
And in the case of the Herald, Murphy's side has not been able
to disprove the essential accuracy of Wedge's reporting (Globe
story here;
Herald story here.)
Then again, the trial has a few
more days to go. And you can never predict what a jury is going to
do.